Liverpool 0-3 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 11 Apr 2024

Liverpool
0-3 HT 0-1
Atalanta
📅11/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
UEFA Europa League – 2023/2024

Liverpool vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.38
Over 2.5
61%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.74
6+ Goals
17%
7.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.61
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
19.25
X/1
14%
3.64
X/2
7%
15.95
X/X
5%
7.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.8
2/2
9%
11.75
2/X
8%
19.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.8 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
69%
-13.6pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.9pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+9.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
38%
+0.6pp
61%
Over 2.5
62%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.3pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Liverpool v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 16%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
3.27/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/2.59
+73% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / +64%
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
492 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
43.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.0
14.9 Crosses 19.4
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.2

Liverpool vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Atalanta
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.38 xG 1.21
55% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
530 Passes 415
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
25.11.2020 Liverpool Liverpool 0-2 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta ŞMP
03.11.2020 Atalanta Atalanta 0-5 HT 0-2 Liverpool Liverpool ŞMP

Liverpool 0-3 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
0-3
AWAY Atalanta
2.60 xG 3.22
70% Ball Possession 30%
19 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 2
539 Passes 171
84% Pass Accuracy 63%
39 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta ran out comfortable winners over Liverpool 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Liverpool carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Liverpool had 70% of the ball to Atalanta's 30%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 2.60 to 3.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Liverpool and 1.00 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Atalanta?

Liverpool 0-3 Atalanta in the UEFA Europa League on 11/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 55%, draw 22%, Atalanta 22%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Liverpool), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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