Benfica 2-1 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 11 Apr 2024

📅11/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.04
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.1
6+ Goals
12%
9.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.18
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.45
X/1
17%
4.22
X/2
9%
9.78
X/X
15%
5.25
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.7
2/2
11%
7.1
2/X
5%
14.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.0pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -24%
2.46/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.47
+1% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
389 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
52.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.8
37.0 Crosses 10.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Marsilya
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
25.07.2021 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya HAZ
18.03.2010 Marsilya Marsilya 1-2 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica AVL
11.03.2010 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
2-1
AWAY Marsilya
1.04 xG 0.87
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 8
487 Passes 351
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica squeezed past Marsilya 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Benfica had 57% of the ball to Marsilya's 43%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.04 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Benfica and 1.00 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Marsilya?

Benfica 2-1 Marsilya in the UEFA Europa League on 11/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Benfica 50%, draw 25%, Marsilya 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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