Roma 2-1 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 18 Apr 2024

Roma
2-1 HT 2-0
Milan
📅18/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.99
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.35
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.53
6+ Goals
10%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 27% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.84
1/2
9%
25.5
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
11%
6.74
X/2
17%
4.71
X/X
9%
4.66
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.93
2/X
6%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
30%
+7.1pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.3pp
41%
Away Win
44%
-2.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 48%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
0.96/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/2.06
-16% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -45%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 81%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
6.0 Crosses 11.3
5.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Milan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.94 xG 1.60
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
321 Passes 438
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.04.2024 Milan Milan 0-1 HT 0-1 Roma Roma AVL
14.01.2024 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
01.09.2023 Roma Roma 1-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
29.04.2023 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
08.01.2023 Milan Milan 2-2 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
06.01.2022 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 2-1 Roma Roma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
2-1
AWAY Milan
1.47 xG 0.98
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 11
220 Passes 418
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
10 Box Touches 37
6 Crosses 38
0 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Roma vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma squeezed past Milan 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 22% / 41%) promised a tight game; Roma found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Roma had 36% of the ball to Milan's 64%, shots finished 6-20, expected goals 1.47 to 0.98.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Roma and 1.83 for Milan.

What was the final score of Roma vs Milan?

Roma 2-1 Milan in the UEFA Europa League on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Roma 37%, draw 22%, Milan 41%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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