West Ham United 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
37%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.09
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
9.78
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 30% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
20%
5.63
1/2
6%
22.3
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
10%
8.02
X/2
15%
4.42
X/X
13%
5.36
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.45
2/X
6%
13.5
Value flag · 1/1 at 5.63 — our 20% vs market 13.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
26%
+10.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
37%
Away Win
49%
-11.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.0pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME West Ham United EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 53%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +22%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
280 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 441 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
Crosses 15.1
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME West Ham United
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.20 xG 2.41
32% Ball Possession 68%
4 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 12
2 Corners 8
204 Passes 674
73% Pass Accuracy 91%
7 Box Touches 78
5 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 0
11.04.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 HT 0-0 West Ham United West Ham United AVL
05.08.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 HT 3-0 West Ham United West Ham United HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME West Ham United
1-1
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.56 xG 1.10
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
329 Passes 469
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 14
6 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH West Ham United vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

West Ham United and Bayer Leverkusen shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, West Ham United had 42% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 58%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.56 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for West Ham United and 3.00 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of West Ham United vs Bayer Leverkusen?

West Ham United 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for West Ham United vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated a West Ham United win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split West Ham United 37%, draw 26%, Bayer Leverkusen 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVL More UEFA Europa League
18 Apr 2024
22:00 Atalanta vs Liverpool Analysis →
22:00 Marsilya vs Benfica Analysis →
22:00 Roma vs Milan Analysis →