Marsilya 1-0 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.27
6+ Goals
11%
11.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.34
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
16%
5.29
X/2
13%
6.01
X/X
11%
4.86
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
15%
3.98
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
12.85
Value flag · 2/X at 12.85 — our 12% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-3.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.3pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 37%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
2.04/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/0.92
+54% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +67%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
419 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 75%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
22.9 Crosses 16.3
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Benfica
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.87 xG 1.04
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
351 Passes 487
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
11.04.2024 Benfica Benfica 2-1 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya AVL
25.07.2021 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya HAZ
18.03.2010 Marsilya Marsilya 1-2 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica AVL
11.03.2010 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
1-0
AWAY Benfica
1.66 xG 1.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
576 Passes 471
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
39 Box Touches 25
31 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya nicked a narrow win over Benfica 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Marsilya made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Marsilya had 54% of the ball to Benfica's 46%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.66 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Marsilya and 1.50 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Benfica?

Marsilya 1-0 Benfica in the UEFA Europa League on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 36%, draw 28%, Benfica 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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