Atalanta 0-1 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 18 Apr 2024

Atalanta
0-1 HT 0-1
Liverpool
📅18/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
UEFA Europa League – 2023/2024

Atalanta vs Liverpool Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.48
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
47%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.89
Over 2.5
52%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.49
No
50%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
6.75
2-3 Goals
39%
2.16
4-5 Goals
23%
2.49
6+ Goals
12%
5.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.5
1/2
8%
18.45
1/X
6%
15.8
X/1
10%
11.8
X/2
11%
4.12
X/X
9%
7.55
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
28%
1.84
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
15.75
Value flag · 2/X at 15.75 — our 10% vs market 3.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
19%
+9.0pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.1pp
47%
Away Win
61%
-14.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
31%
+16.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
69%
-16.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.8pp
50%
BTTS No
37%
+12.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atalanta v Liverpool — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 66%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +93% / -57%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
278 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 500 · 85%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
– Crosses 17.8
– Yellow Cards 0.9

Atalanta vs Liverpool Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Liverpool
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.88 xG 1.79
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
334 Passes 533
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.04.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 0-3 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta AVL
25.11.2020 Liverpool Liverpool 0-2 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta ŞMP
03.11.2020 Atalanta Atalanta 0-5 HT 0-2 Liverpool Liverpool ŞMP

Atalanta 0-1 Liverpool — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
0-1
AWAY Liverpool
0.63 xG 1.65
30% Ball Possession 70%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 1
184 Passes 563
64% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool edged past Atalanta 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atalanta had 30% of the ball to Liverpool's 70%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.63 to 1.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atalanta and 1.67 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Liverpool?

Atalanta 0-1 Liverpool in the UEFA Europa League on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 28%, draw 25%, Liverpool 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✗ Over 2.5
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