Penafiel 1-1 Benfica II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.31
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.24
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.5pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica II EU Bookmakers 39%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.25/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.48
-19% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -14%
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
282 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.0 Crosses 16.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Benfica II
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.23
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
279 Passes 361
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
04.11.2023 Benfica II Benfica II 1-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
30.04.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 0-3 HT 0-2 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
12.11.2022 Benfica II Benfica II 1-2 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
23.01.2022 Benfica II Benfica II 1-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
15.08.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 0-1 HT 0-1 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
1-1
AWAY Benfica II
1.91 xG 2.73
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
184 Passes 358
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Benfica II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel and Benfica II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Penafiel had 43% of the ball to Benfica II's 57%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.91 to 2.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica II led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Penafiel and 1.33 for Benfica II.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Benfica II?

Penafiel 1-1 Benfica II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Benfica II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 39%, draw 27%, Benfica II 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Penafiel), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penafiel) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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