Penafiel 0-1 Benfica II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 16 Mar 2024

Penafiel
0-1 HT 0-0
Benfica II
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Penafiel vs Benfica II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.81
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.14
6+ Goals
11%
19.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+1.2pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Penafiel v Benfica II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica II EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +14%
1.28/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.39
-25% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -18%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
236 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
27.2 Crosses 17.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0

Penafiel vs Benfica II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Benfica II
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.05 xG 1.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
276 Passes 370
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Benfica II Benfica II 1-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
30.04.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 0-3 HT 0-2 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
12.11.2022 Benfica II Benfica II 1-2 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
23.01.2022 Benfica II Benfica II 1-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
15.08.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 0-1 HT 0-1 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
26.04.2021 Benfica II Benfica II 2-2 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2

Penafiel 0-1 Benfica II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
0-1
AWAY Benfica II
1.38 xG 0.66
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 7
215 Passes 373
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Benfica II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica II edged past Penafiel 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 30% / 34%) promised a tight game; Benfica II found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Penafiel had 40% of the ball to Benfica II's 60%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.38 to 0.66 — on chances, Penafiel could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica II led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Penafiel and 1.50 for Benfica II.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Benfica II?

Penafiel 0-1 Benfica II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Benfica II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 36%, draw 30%, Benfica II 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Penafiel) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penafiel) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
16 Mar 2024
14:00 UD Oliveirense vs AVS Analysis →
18:30 Maritimo vs Uniao De Leiria Analysis →
18:30 Academico Viseu vs Paços De Ferreira Analysis →