UD Oliveirense 1-1 AVS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.48
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
50%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.23
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 31% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
25%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
19%
+1.7pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.3pp
50%
Away Win
56%
-6.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.6pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY AVS EU Bookmakers 60%
-6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +33% / +33%
1.07/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.64/1.13
-3% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +107% / -57%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
251 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.3 Crosses 17.0
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Oliveirense
1W-0D-0L
AWAY AVS
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.57 xG 1.28
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 13
211 Passes 256
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
6 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.11.2023 AVS AVS 0-1 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Oliveirense
1-1
AWAY AVS
1.80 xG 1.62
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
14 Corners 7
150 Passes 296
63% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH UD Oliveirense vs AVS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Oliveirense and AVS shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was AVS at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, UD Oliveirense had 41% of the ball to AVS's 59%, shots finished 16-20, expected goals 1.80 to 1.62.

What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs AVS?

UD Oliveirense 1-1 AVS in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs AVS?

Before kick-off our model rated an AVS win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 21%, draw 29%, AVS 50%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (AVS), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AVS) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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