Atletico Nacional 1-1 Atletico Bucaramanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Super Cup, 30 Jan 2025

📅30/01/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.54
Over 2.5
43%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.4
No
56%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-11.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
27%
Away Win
17%
+10.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
61%
-3.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
39%
+3.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
38%
+6.4pp
56%
BTTS No
62%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga EU Bookmakers 20%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+94% / -100% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
371 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 76%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.25 xG 0.62
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
318 Passes 303
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.09.2024 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
11.03.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
14.08.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
20.02.2023 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
28.08.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-2 HT 2-1 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
09.06.2022 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
1-1
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga
2.15 xG 0.23
74% Ball Possession 26%
28 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 0
411 Passes 100
85% Pass Accuracy 57%
40 Box Touches 4
33 Crosses 3
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Atletico Bucaramanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional and Atletico Bucaramanga couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Nacional at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 74% of the ball to Atletico Bucaramanga's 26%, shots finished 28-5, expected goals 2.15 to 0.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.83 for Atletico Bucaramanga.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

Atletico Nacional 1-1 Atletico Bucaramanga in the Colombia - Super Cup on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 47%, draw 26%, Atletico Bucaramanga 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Nacional), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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