Almeria 0-3 Osasuna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 30 Mar 2024

Almeria
0-3 HT 0-2
Osasuna
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Almeria vs Osasuna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.94
6+ Goals
9%
17.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 31% vs market 27.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.51
1/2
8%
33.0
1/X
10%
12.8
X/1
10%
5.21
X/2
14%
5.93
X/X
10%
4.18
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
12%
4.22
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.5pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+1.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.3pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Almeria v Osasuna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Osasuna EU Bookmakers 36%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +3%
1.33/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.17
-5% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +18%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 78%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
18.5 Crosses 19.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Almeria vs Osasuna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Osasuna
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.71 xG 1.78
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
358 Passes 320
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.01.2024 Osasuna Osasuna 1-0 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS1
13.05.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 3-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS1
12.09.2022 Almeria Almeria 0-1 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
27.01.2021 Almeria Almeria 0-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İSPK
26.01.2019 Almeria Almeria 0-1 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS2
08.09.2018 Osasuna Osasuna 3-1 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS2

Almeria 0-3 Osasuna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
0-3
AWAY Osasuna
0.84 xG 1.03
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
359 Passes 321
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Osasuna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna cruised past Almeria 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Almeria at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Almeria had 51% of the ball to Osasuna's 49%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.84 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osasuna led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Almeria and 1.50 for Osasuna.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Osasuna?

Almeria 0-3 Osasuna in the Spain - Primera Liga on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Osasuna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Almeria 41%, draw 26%, Osasuna 33%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Almeria), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almeria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
30 Mar 2024
16:00 Getafe vs Sevilla Analysis →
20:30 Valencia vs Mallorca Analysis →
23:00 Barcelona vs Las Palmas Analysis →