Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Cracovia Krakow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 31% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.26
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.25
X/1
14%
4.06
X/2
12%
9.22
X/X
15%
4.96
2/1
9%
23.6
2/2
9%
7.09
2/X
6%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-6.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.4pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 24%
+5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
2.15/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.27
+18% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
21.6 Crosses 17.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.81 xG 1.09
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
356 Passes 258
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-5 HT 0-2 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
08.04.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-2 HT 2-1 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
17.09.2022 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
12.03.2022 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
18.09.2021 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-1 HT 1-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
06.02.2021 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 1-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3-1
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
1.07 xG 0.69
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 6
490 Passes 253
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin saw off Cracovia Krakow 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 61% of the ball to Cracovia Krakow's 39%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.07 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.00 for Cracovia Krakow.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?

Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Cracovia Krakow in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 47%, draw 26%, Cracovia Krakow 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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