Ekranas 1-2 Hegelmann II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
39%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
39%
Away Win
38%
+1.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.3pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ekranas EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Hegelmann II EU Bookmakers 42%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.38/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.87
-4% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -32%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
288 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ekranas
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Hegelmann II
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
04.10.2024 Hegelmann II Hegelmann II 0-2 Ekranas Ekranas LIT1
19.05.2024 Ekranas Ekranas 3-1 HT 1-0 Hegelmann II Hegelmann II LIT1
POST-MATCH Ekranas vs Hegelmann II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann II nicked a narrow win over Ekranas 2-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 24% / 39% — and on the day Hegelmann II made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ekranas had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Ekranas and 0.50 for Hegelmann II.

What was the final score of Ekranas vs Hegelmann II?

Ekranas 1-2 Hegelmann II in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ekranas vs Hegelmann II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hegelmann II win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ekranas 37%, draw 24%, Hegelmann II 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hegelmann II), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hegelmann II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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