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Aston Villa (K) vs Arsenal (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aston Villa (K) v Arsenal (K) — Team-Based Signals
Aston Villa (K) vs Arsenal (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
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Aston Villa (K) 5-2 Arsenal (K) — Actual Match Statistics
Aston Villa (K) cruised past Arsenal (K) 5-2. Half-time: 2-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
This one beat our numbers. Arsenal (K) carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Aston Villa (K) had 35% of the ball to Arsenal (K)'s 65%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.88 to 1.54.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arsenal (K) led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Aston Villa (K) and 3.67 for Arsenal (K).
What was the final score of Aston Villa (K) vs Arsenal (K)?
Aston Villa (K) 5-2 Arsenal (K) in the England - Women's Premier League on 30/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aston Villa (K) vs Arsenal (K)?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa (K) 20%, draw 23%, Arsenal (K) 57%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal (K)) went the other way.