Shimizu S-Pulse 3-1 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
33%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.76
6+ Goals
10%
16.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
33%
Away Win
25%
+8.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
1.65/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.06
+8% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
28.04.2024 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
29.07.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
26.02.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-0 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
3-1
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shimizu S-Pulse saw off Fagiano Okayama 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Shimizu S-Pulse as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 48% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 52%, shots finished 15-10.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Shimizu S-Pulse had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 0.00 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Fagiano Okayama?

Shimizu S-Pulse 3-1 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J2 League on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 41%, draw 26%, Fagiano Okayama 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✗ Under 2.5
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