JEF United 2-1 Kagoshima United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 27% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
19%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-6.9pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME JEF United EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 24%
+3% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.92/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.94
+9% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
418 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME JEF United
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Kagoshima United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
54% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
16.03.2024 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 4-2 HT 3-1 JEF United JEF United JAP2
06.03.2024 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 1-0 HT 0-0 JEF United JEF United JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME JEF United
2-1
AWAY Kagoshima United
49% Ball Possession 51%
6 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH JEF United vs Kagoshima United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

JEF United squeezed past Kagoshima United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had JEF United as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, JEF United had 49% of the ball to Kagoshima United's 51%, shots finished 6-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Kagoshima United led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for JEF United and 2.50 for Kagoshima United.

What was the final score of JEF United vs Kagoshima United?

JEF United 2-1 Kagoshima United in the Japan - J2 League on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for JEF United vs Kagoshima United?

Before kick-off our model rated a JEF United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split JEF United 49%, draw 26%, Kagoshima United 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (JEF United), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (JEF United) ✓ BTTS Yes
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