Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
33%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.83
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.12
6+ Goals
10%
19.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
32%
+9.9pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
33%
Away Win
40%
-6.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -12%
1.21/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.33
+9% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
29.07.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
26.02.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-0 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0-1
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-Pulse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shimizu S-Pulse nicked a narrow win over Fagiano Okayama 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Fagiano Okayama at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 43% of the ball to Shimizu S-Pulse's 57%, shots finished 8-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Shimizu S-Pulse led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 0.50 for Shimizu S-Pulse.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse in the Japan - J2 League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 42%, draw 25%, Shimizu S-Pulse 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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