Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 30 Jul 2024

📅30/07/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.09
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.61
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
12%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.61 — our 28% vs market 22.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
44%
+6.2pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.4pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 33%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
2.33/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/2.09
+30% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -31%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
317 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Rostov
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.58 xG 1.19
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
256 Passes 290
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.05.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 1-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
28.10.2023 Rostov Rostov 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
03.10.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1 HT 2-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
30.08.2023 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 2-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
04.03.2023 Rostov Rostov 1-3 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
24.07.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-2 HT 1-1 Rostov Rostov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
1-0
AWAY Rostov
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 5
11 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow squeezed past Rostov 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 57% of the ball to Rostov's 43%, shots finished 21-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.17 for Rostov.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov?

Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 Rostov in the Russia - Cup on 30/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 50%, draw 22%, Rostov 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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