Ballymena United 3-1 Glenavon FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 30 Aug 2024

📅30/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
33%
3.35
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
14.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.59 — our 27% vs market 22.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.05
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
8%
4.77
X/2
10%
6.38
X/X
19%
4.68
2/1
5%
26.0
2/2
11%
4.6
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-3.3pp
32%
Draw
26%
+6.2pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-2.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ballymena United EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -13%
1.13/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.63
-27% / +66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ballymena United
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Glenavon FC
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.04.2024 Ballymena United Ballymena United 1-0 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
30.12.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
11.11.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 0-1 HT 0-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
02.09.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
11.04.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 3-2 HT 1-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
03.04.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 0-1 HT 0-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
POST-MATCH Ballymena United vs Glenavon FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ballymena United beat Glenavon FC 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 32% / 27%) promised a tight game; Ballymena United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Glenavon FC led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Ballymena United and 1.00 for Glenavon FC.

What was the final score of Ballymena United vs Glenavon FC?

Ballymena United 3-1 Glenavon FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 30/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ballymena United vs Glenavon FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ballymena United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ballymena United 40%, draw 32%, Glenavon FC 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ballymena United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ballymena United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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KİRL More North Ireland - Premier League
30 Aug 2024
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