Ballymena United 1-0 Glenavon FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 16 Apr 2024

📅16/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
31%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.63
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 27% vs market 22.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.71
1/2
9%
27.0
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
10%
5.63
X/2
13%
5.46
X/X
10%
4.88
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
9%
3.56
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
37%
+7.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
31%
Away Win
37%
-6.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.6pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ballymena United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 40%
-18% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
1.01/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.41
-29% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
275 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ballymena United
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Glenavon FC
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.12.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
11.11.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 0-1 HT 0-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
02.09.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
11.04.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 3-2 HT 1-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
03.04.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 0-1 HT 0-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
28.10.2022 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 3-2 HT 0-1 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ballymena United
1-0
AWAY Glenavon FC
29% Ball Possession 71%
5 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ballymena United vs Glenavon FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ballymena United squeezed past Glenavon FC 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ballymena United as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ballymena United had 29% of the ball to Glenavon FC's 71%, shots finished 5-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Glenavon FC led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Ballymena United and 1.50 for Glenavon FC.

What was the final score of Ballymena United vs Glenavon FC?

Ballymena United 1-0 Glenavon FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ballymena United vs Glenavon FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ballymena United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ballymena United 44%, draw 25%, Glenavon FC 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ballymena United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ballymena United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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