Stal Mielec 0-2 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 30 Aug 2024

📅30/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
38%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.81
2-3 Goals
34%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.15
6+ Goals
11%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 34% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.12
1/2
8%
26.5
1/X
6%
14.9
X/1
11%
7.62
X/2
15%
4.16
X/X
15%
4.36
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.63
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
25%
+9.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
38%
Away Win
49%
-11.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.9pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 54%
+7% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.12/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.22
+1% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +12%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
247 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 82%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
18.9 Crosses 21.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Mielec
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.62 xG 2.03
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
254 Passes 451
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 37
14 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.04.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
23.09.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-1 HT 2-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
27.01.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
16.07.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-2 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
24.04.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-1 HT 2-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
29.10.2021 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Mielec
0-2
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.59 xG 0.96
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
296 Passes 407
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan got the better of Stal Mielec 2-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Lech Poznan made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Stal Mielec had 44% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 56%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.59 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Stal Mielec and 0.83 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan?

Stal Mielec 0-2 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 30/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Stal Mielec 34%, draw 28%, Lech Poznan 38%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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