UMF Selfoss vs Thor Akureyri Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
UMF Selfoss v Thor Akureyri — Team-Based Signals
UMF Selfoss vs Thor Akureyri Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 0-1
Thor Akureyri
İZL1
2-1
HT 1-0
UMF Selfoss
İZL1
2-1
HT 1-1
Thor Akureyri
İZL1
0-2
HT 0-1
UMF Selfoss
İZL1
UMF Selfoss nicked a narrow win over Thor Akureyri 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Thor Akureyri at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) came in.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Thor Akureyri led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for UMF Selfoss and 1.83 for Thor Akureyri.
What was the final score of UMF Selfoss vs Thor Akureyri?
UMF Selfoss 3-2 Thor Akureyri in the Iceland - 1st Division on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for UMF Selfoss vs Thor Akureyri?
Before kick-off our model rated an Thor Akureyri win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split UMF Selfoss 21%, draw 21%, Thor Akureyri 58%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Thor Akureyri) went the other way.