Spartak Varna 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.5
Draw
20%
3.35
Away
54%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.68
Over 2.5
51%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
31%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
25%
+0.9pp
20%
Draw
26%
-6.1pp
54%
Away Win
49%
+5.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 53%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.33/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.66
-64% / +148% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +30%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
257 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Varna
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
07.04.2025 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 HT 0-2 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
23.10.2024 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
28.04.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-1 HT 1-1 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Varna
1-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Plovdiv squeezed past Spartak Varna 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lokomotiv Plovdiv as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Spartak Varna had 54% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 46%, shots finished 9-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Spartak Varna had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Spartak Varna and 1.33 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Spartak Varna 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Spartak Varna 26%, draw 20%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 54%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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