Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 Spartak Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 7 Apr 2025

📅07/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.18
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.64
Over 2.5
36%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.9
No
60%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
42%
-8.1pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.7pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.4pp
64%
Under 2.5
57%
+6.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
43%
-6.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-9.1pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
0.69/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.48
-38% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -29%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Spartak Varna
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
23.10.2024 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
28.04.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-1 HT 1-1 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Varna edged past Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (34% / 32% / 34%) promised a tight game; Spartak Varna found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.00 for Spartak Varna.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 Spartak Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 34%, draw 32%, Spartak Varna 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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