Antalyaspor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
20%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.68
Over 2.5
53%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.96
No
45%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.68
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.99
6+ Goals
9%
19.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.99 — our 23% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.28
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1
16%
4.13
X/2
6%
9.25
X/X
11%
4.36
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.0
2/2
9%
7.86
2/X
4%
15.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
53%
+3.8pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.3pp
20%
Away Win
20%
-0.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.7pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Antalyaspor EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 23%
+10% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.37/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.81
-11% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -19%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
20.4 Crosses 16.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Antalyaspor
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.15 xG 1.34
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
343 Passes 420
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.04.2024 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 HT 1-0 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
09.12.2023 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 2-1 HT 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
29.04.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 HT 0-1 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
06.11.2022 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 4-2 HT 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
13.02.2022 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 3-0 HT 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
21.09.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 HT 0-0 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Antalyaspor
1-2
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
0.80 xG 1.53
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
292 Passes 328
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük squeezed past Antalyaspor 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Antalyaspor at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Antalyaspor had 49% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 51%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.80 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Antalyaspor had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Antalyaspor and 1.17 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Antalyaspor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - Super League on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Antalyaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Antalyaspor 57%, draw 23%, Fatih Karagümrük 20%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Antalyaspor) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Antalyaspor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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