Brescia 3-2 Cremonese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 30 Sep 2024

Brescia
3-2 HT 3-0
Cremonese
📅30/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Brescia vs Cremonese Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.94
Draw
24%
2.94
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.85
No
61%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.72
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.3
6+ Goals
8%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 33% vs market 30.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.68
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
10%
12.85
X/1
14%
6.33
X/2
17%
5.06
X/X
9%
3.85
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.39
2/X
6%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
31%
+4.7pp
24%
Draw
31%
-6.4pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+1.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
50%
-11.3pp
61%
BTTS No
50%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brescia v Cremonese — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brescia EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Cremonese EU Bookmakers 43%
+6% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +10%
1.36/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/0.96
+26% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
274 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
19.4 Crosses 20.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Brescia vs Cremonese Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brescia
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Cremonese
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.63 xG 1.70
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
248 Passes 331
69% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Cremonese Cremonese 1-0 HT 1-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
12.11.2023 Brescia Brescia 0-3 HT 0-2 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
05.03.2022 Cremonese Cremonese 2-1 HT 1-1 Brescia Brescia İTB
23.10.2021 Brescia Brescia 1-0 HT 0-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
20.02.2021 Brescia Brescia 1-2 HT 1-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
08.12.2020 Cremonese Cremonese 2-2 HT 1-1 Brescia Brescia İTB

Brescia 3-2 Cremonese — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brescia
3-2
AWAY Cremonese
1.27 xG 1.41
35% Ball Possession 65%
14 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 5
162 Passes 373
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 35
18 Crosses 32
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brescia vs Cremonese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brescia edged past Cremonese 3-2. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Cremonese at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brescia had 35% of the ball to Cremonese's 65%, shots finished 14-20, expected goals 1.27 to 1.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cremonese led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Brescia and 1.67 for Cremonese.

What was the final score of Brescia vs Cremonese?

Brescia 3-2 Cremonese in the Italy - Serie B on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brescia vs Cremonese?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cremonese win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Brescia 35%, draw 24%, Cremonese 41%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cremonese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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