Südtirol 1-3 Palermo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.67
6+ Goals
10%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.65
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.4
X/1
12%
5.1
X/2
9%
5.79
X/X
16%
3.8
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
18%
4.37
2/X
6%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-2.0pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.1pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.5pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Südtirol EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Palermo EU Bookmakers 36%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.30/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.47
-8% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -31%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
264 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
21.0 Crosses 18.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Südtirol
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Palermo
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.74 xG 1.09
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 9
261 Passes 416
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 30
4 Yellow Cards 4
10.05.2024 Südtirol Südtirol 0-1 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
01.10.2023 Palermo Palermo 2-1 HT 0-1 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
25.02.2023 Südtirol Südtirol 1-1 HT 1-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
01.10.2022 Palermo Palermo 0-1 HT 0-1 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Südtirol
1-3
AWAY Palermo
0.63 xG 0.84
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
429 Passes 360
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Südtirol vs Palermo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palermo saw off Südtirol 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 32% / 32%) promised a tight game; Palermo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Südtirol had 53% of the ball to Palermo's 47%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 0.63 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Palermo led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Südtirol and 1.00 for Palermo.

What was the final score of Südtirol vs Palermo?

Südtirol 1-3 Palermo in the Italy - Serie B on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Südtirol vs Palermo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Südtirol win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Südtirol 36%, draw 32%, Palermo 32%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Südtirol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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