Südtirol 0-1 Palermo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.46
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
37%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.72
6+ Goals
9%
15.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.72 — our 26% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.75
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
5%
13.9
X/1
11%
7.61
X/2
15%
4.4
X/X
12%
4.5
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.66
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.35
Value flag · 2/X at 13.35 — our 12% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
26%
+8.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
37%
Away Win
47%
-10.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.6pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Südtirol EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Palermo EU Bookmakers 51%
+11% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
0.95/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.00
+20% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +150%
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
282 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
17.0 Crosses 15.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Südtirol
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Palermo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.84 xG 1.32
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 9
198 Passes 434
70% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 33
3 Yellow Cards 4
01.10.2023 Palermo Palermo 2-1 HT 0-1 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
25.02.2023 Südtirol Südtirol 1-1 HT 1-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
01.10.2022 Palermo Palermo 0-1 HT 0-1 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Südtirol
0-1
AWAY Palermo
0.43 xG 0.43
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 9
451 Passes 363
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Südtirol vs Palermo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palermo edged past Südtirol 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 37% — and on the day Palermo made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Südtirol had 53% of the ball to Palermo's 47%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 0.43 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Südtirol and 1.00 for Palermo.

What was the final score of Südtirol vs Palermo?

Südtirol 0-1 Palermo in the Italy - Serie B on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Südtirol vs Palermo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Südtirol 34%, draw 29%, Palermo 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palermo), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palermo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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