Spezia 2-1 Venezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.63
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.33
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 29% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.07
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
10%
13.15
X/1
15%
4.92
X/2
13%
6.36
X/X
10%
4.91
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
14%
4.39
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.0pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Venezia EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +23%
1.34/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.15
-11% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +38%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
23.9 Crosses 20.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Venezia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.38 xG 1.13
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
412 Passes 324
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2023 Venezia Venezia 1-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
14.08.2023 Spezia Spezia 2-2 HT 1-0 Venezia Venezia İTK
02.04.2022 Spezia Spezia 1-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTA
19.09.2021 Venezia Venezia 1-2 HT 0-1 Spezia Spezia İTA
17.07.2020 Spezia Spezia 0-1 HT 0-1 Venezia Venezia İTB
14.12.2019 Venezia Venezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
2-1
AWAY Venezia
3.03 xG 0.73
46% Ball Possession 54%
28 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 2
253 Passes 320
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 14
37 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Venezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia squeezed past Venezia 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Spezia made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Spezia had 46% of the ball to Venezia's 54%, shots finished 28-10, expected goals 3.03 to 0.73 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Spezia's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Spezia and 0.83 for Venezia.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Venezia?

Spezia 2-1 Venezia in the Italy - Serie B on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Venezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Spezia 38%, draw 28%, Venezia 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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