Cremonese 1-0 Brescia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.73
6+ Goals
10%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 31% vs market 26.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.23
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.65
X/1
13%
3.91
X/2
11%
9.33
X/X
18%
4.72
2/1
9%
24.7
2/2
11%
7.5
2/X
6%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
54%
-12.0pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.8pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cremonese EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Brescia EU Bookmakers 23%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +16%
1.62/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.26
-10% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 73%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
24.2 Crosses 18.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cremonese
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Brescia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.71 xG 0.70
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
295 Passes 277
73% Pass Accuracy 70%
25 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2023 Brescia Brescia 0-3 HT 0-2 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
05.03.2022 Cremonese Cremonese 2-1 HT 1-1 Brescia Brescia İTB
23.10.2021 Brescia Brescia 1-0 HT 0-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
20.02.2021 Brescia Brescia 1-2 HT 1-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
08.12.2020 Cremonese Cremonese 2-2 HT 1-1 Brescia Brescia İTB
04.05.2019 Cremonese Cremonese 0-0 HT 0-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cremonese
1-0
AWAY Brescia
1.12 xG 0.17
68% Ball Possession 32%
10 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
475 Passes 189
85% Pass Accuracy 70%
31 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Cremonese vs Brescia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cremonese nicked a narrow win over Brescia 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cremonese as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cremonese had 68% of the ball to Brescia's 32%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 1.12 to 0.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cremonese had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cremonese and 0.83 for Brescia.

What was the final score of Cremonese vs Brescia?

Cremonese 1-0 Brescia in the Italy - Serie B on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cremonese vs Brescia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cremonese win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cremonese 42%, draw 30%, Brescia 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cremonese), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cremonese) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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