Venezia 1-0 Ternana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
29%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.18
Over 2.5
59%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.25
2-3 Goals
44%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
2.98
6+ Goals
14%
9.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.03
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
12%
3.96
X/2
12%
10.25
X/X
9%
5.83
2/1
6%
21.1
2/2
12%
7.45
2/X
7%
15.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.0 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-9.5pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+9.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
42%
-0.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.4pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venezia EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ternana EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -18%
1.91/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.73
+35% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
24.3 Crosses 20.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venezia
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Ternana
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.62 xG 1.40
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
354 Passes 335
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Ternana Ternana 0-1 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTB
23.04.2023 Ternana Ternana 1-4 HT 0-3 Venezia Venezia İTB
03.12.2022 Venezia Venezia 2-1 HT 2-1 Ternana Ternana İTB
14.12.2021 Venezia Venezia 3-1 HT 0-0 Ternana Ternana İTK
27.02.2018 Venezia Venezia 2-0 HT 1-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
30.09.2017 Ternana Ternana 2-3 HT 0-1 Venezia Venezia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Venezia
1-0
AWAY Ternana
2.23 xG 0.28
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 3
325 Passes 174
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
38 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Venezia vs Ternana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venezia nicked a narrow win over Ternana 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Venezia as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Venezia had 62% of the ball to Ternana's 38%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.23 to 0.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Venezia's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Venezia had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Venezia and 0.83 for Ternana.

What was the final score of Venezia vs Ternana?

Venezia 1-0 Ternana in the Italy - Serie B on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venezia vs Ternana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Venezia win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Venezia 47%, draw 23%, Ternana 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Venezia) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Venezia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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