Guingamp 3-1 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.75
Over 2.5
51%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.98
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.91
6+ Goals
10%
17.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.21
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
17%
4.85
X/2
11%
6.26
X/X
10%
4.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
28.0
2/2
13%
4.6
2/X
9%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.4pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guingamp EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.32/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.28
+16% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 77%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
21.1 Crosses 18.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guingamp
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Caen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.24 xG 0.99
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
325 Passes 341
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.08.2024 Caen Caen 1-6 HT 0-4 Guingamp Guingamp HAZ
17.02.2024 Guingamp Guingamp 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
30.09.2023 Caen Caen 0-1 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
25.02.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 1-2 HT 0-2 Caen Caen FR2
20.08.2022 Caen Caen 4-1 HT 2-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
30.04.2022 Guingamp Guingamp 2-1 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guingamp
3-1
AWAY Caen
1.34 xG 0.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
373 Passes 413
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Guingamp vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guingamp saw off Caen 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Guingamp as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Guingamp had 47% of the ball to Caen's 53%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.34 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guingamp had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Guingamp and 1.33 for Caen.

What was the final score of Guingamp vs Caen?

Guingamp 3-1 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guingamp vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guingamp win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Guingamp 44%, draw 26%, Caen 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guingamp), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guingamp) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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