Guingamp 1-0 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 17 Feb 2024

Guingamp
1-0 HT 1-0
Caen
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Guingamp vs Caen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.64
Over 2.5
53%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.61
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
4.39
6+ Goals
10%
22.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.39 — our 27% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.95
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.75
X/1
17%
4.39
X/2
8%
6.65
X/X
12%
4.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
28.5
2/2
16%
5.29
2/X
9%
14.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 8% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
57%
-10.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
43%
+10.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.2pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Guingamp v Caen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guingamp EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.32/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.39
+7% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
400 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 78%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
20.0 Crosses 18.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Guingamp vs Caen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guingamp
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Caen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.40 xG 1.22
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
369 Passes 314
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Caen Caen 0-1 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
25.02.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 1-2 HT 0-2 Caen Caen FR2
20.08.2022 Caen Caen 4-1 HT 2-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
30.04.2022 Guingamp Guingamp 2-1 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FR2
11.12.2021 Caen Caen 2-0 HT 1-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
22.02.2021 Guingamp Guingamp 2-2 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FR2

Guingamp 1-0 Caen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guingamp
1-0
AWAY Caen
0.48 xG 0.54
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 9
196 Passes 441
65% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Guingamp vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guingamp nicked a narrow win over Caen 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Guingamp as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Guingamp had 36% of the ball to Caen's 64%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 0.48 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Guingamp and 1.83 for Caen.

What was the final score of Guingamp vs Caen?

Guingamp 1-0 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guingamp vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guingamp win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Guingamp 44%, draw 27%, Caen 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guingamp) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guingamp) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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