Samgurali 3-4 Saburtalo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
42%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+3.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-5.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.5pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samgurali EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 51%
+9% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +0%
1.05/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/1.39
-9% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
284 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Samgurali
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Saburtalo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
49% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.06.2024 Saburtalo 1-2 HT 0-1 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
15.04.2024 Samgurali Samgurali 2-3 HT 2-1 Saburtalo GUR
23.11.2023 Saburtalo 2-2 HT 2-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
07.11.2023 Saburtalo 2-1 HT 1-0 Samgurali Samgurali GURCK
17.09.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 1-0 HT 1-0 Saburtalo GUR
24.05.2023 Saburtalo 5-1 HT 1-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samgurali
3-4
AWAY Saburtalo
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 23
7 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Samgurali vs Saburtalo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saburtalo nicked a narrow win over Samgurali 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Saburtalo as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Samgurali had 43% of the ball to Saburtalo's 57%, shots finished 16-23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saburtalo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Samgurali and 2.17 for Saburtalo.

What was the final score of Samgurali vs Saburtalo?

Samgurali 3-4 Saburtalo in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samgurali vs Saburtalo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Samgurali 32%, draw 26%, Saburtalo 42%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saburtalo), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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