Saburtalo 1-2 Samgurali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 1 Jun 2024

📅01/06/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
20%
3.64
Away
35%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.18
Over 2.5
58%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.5pp
20%
Draw
24%
-4.0pp
35%
Away Win
24%
+10.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
42%
+0.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
58%
-0.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.2pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Samgurali EU Bookmakers 28%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -7%
2.09/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.62
+37% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
347 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saburtalo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Samgurali
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.04.2024 Samgurali Samgurali 2-3 HT 2-1 Saburtalo GUR
23.11.2023 Saburtalo 2-2 HT 2-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
07.11.2023 Saburtalo 2-1 HT 1-0 Samgurali Samgurali GURCK
17.09.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 1-0 HT 1-0 Saburtalo GUR
24.05.2023 Saburtalo 5-1 HT 1-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
09.04.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 2-1 HT 0-0 Saburtalo GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saburtalo
1-2
AWAY Samgurali
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Saburtalo vs Samgurali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samgurali edged past Saburtalo 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Saburtalo at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Saburtalo had 54% of the ball to Samgurali's 46%, shots finished 12-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saburtalo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Saburtalo and 1.50 for Samgurali.

What was the final score of Saburtalo vs Samgurali?

Saburtalo 1-2 Samgurali in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 01/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saburtalo vs Samgurali?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Saburtalo 45%, draw 20%, Samgurali 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Saburtalo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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