HNK Gorica 2-1 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.14
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.73
6+ Goals
9%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 32% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+4.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-4.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.0pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
1.06/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.07
+23% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
305 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
16.6 Crosses 20.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.85 xG 0.84
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
300 Passes 356
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 4-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.02.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
10.11.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.08.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-2 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
06.05.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
04.03.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
2-1
AWAY Slaven Belupo
2.01 xG 1.11
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
283 Passes 243
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica edged past Slaven Belupo 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had HNK Gorica as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 53% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 47%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 2.01 to 1.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.17 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo?

HNK Gorica 2-1 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 41%, draw 27%, Slaven Belupo 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HNK Gorica) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HNK Gorica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →