Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
17%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.51
Over 2.5
37%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.51
No
63%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
60%
-3.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
18%
Away Win
15%
+2.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.8pp
37%
BTTS Yes
36%
+0.9pp
63%
BTTS No
64%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 18%
+9% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -10%
1.29/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.39
+6% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 78%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.9
20.7 Crosses 13.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.06 xG 1.05
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
272 Passes 312
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
22.07.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
05.06.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
02.06.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
10.03.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
28.08.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pasto
1-0
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.71 xG 0.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 1
255 Passes 299
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 7
25 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Pasto nicked a narrow win over Alianza Petrolera 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Deportivo Pasto as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Deportivo Pasto had 46% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 54%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 0.71 to 0.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 1.00 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Petrolera?

Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Pasto win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 56%, draw 27%, Alianza Petrolera 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Pasto), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Pasto) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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