Sarpsborg 08 II 3-3 Askollen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 3rd Division, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.3
Draw
20%
5.28
Away
28%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
30%
3.94
Over Pick
70%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
66%
1.39
No
34%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1
12%
13.05
2-3
29%
2.9
4-5
47%
2.3
6+
12%
2.81
Value flag · 4-5 at 2.3 — our 47% vs market 37.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
6%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 70%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
72%
-19.5pp
20%
Draw
16%
+4.2pp
28%
Away Win
12%
+15.3pp
30%
Under 2.5
22%
+7.8pp
70%
Over 2.5
78%
-7.8pp
66%
BTTS Yes
68%
-2.3pp
34%
BTTS No
32%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 II EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Askollen EU Bookmakers 16%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
3.02/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/3.44
-3% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
468 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08 II
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Askollen
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.04.2024 Askollen Askollen 2-4 HT 2-2 Sarpsborg 08 II Sarpsborg 08 II NOR4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarpsborg 08 II
3-3
AWAY Askollen
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 II vs Askollen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 II and Askollen couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sarpsborg 08 II at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (70%), both teams to score (66%) came in.

On the day, Sarpsborg 08 II had 56% of the ball to Askollen's 44%, shots finished 15-7.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 II vs Askollen?

Sarpsborg 08 II 3-3 Askollen in the Norway - 3rd Division on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 II vs Askollen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sarpsborg 08 II win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 II 53%, draw 20%, Askollen 28%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sarpsborg 08 II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sarpsborg 08 II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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