Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 İstanbulspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 30 Sep 2024

Fatih Karagümrük
1-0 HT 1-0
İstanbulspor
📅30/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Turkey - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
41%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.0
Over Pick
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
23%
3.82
2-3
41%
1.83
4-5
23%
3.21
6+
13%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.06
1/2 ✗
9%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
7%
5.02
X/2
14%
6.42
X/X
11%
4.97
2/1
8%
24.85
2/2
19%
4.33
2/X
6%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.5 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
43%
-9.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
41%
Away Win
31%
+10.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.0pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fatih Karagümrük v İstanbulspor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY İstanbulspor EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +14%
1.15/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.15
-27% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +21%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
355 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.0 Crosses 15.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8

Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
5W-0D-1L
AWAY İstanbulspor
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.69 xG 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
374 Passes 335
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.04.2024 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor 1-2 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
01.12.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 HT 1-0 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor TSL
06.08.2023 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük HAZTUR
03.04.2023 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor 0-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
03.10.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 HT 1-0 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor TSL
28.06.2020 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 HT 0-0 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor T1L

Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 İstanbulspor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1-0
AWAY İstanbulspor
1.56 xG 0.86
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
198 Passes 432
67% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 38
11 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük edged past İstanbulspor 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was İstanbulspor at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 36% of the ball to İstanbulspor's 64%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.56 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fatih Karagümrük had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.50 for İstanbulspor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor?

Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 İstanbulspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor?

Before kick-off our model rated an İstanbulspor win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 34%, draw 25%, İstanbulspor 41%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (İstanbulspor) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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