Sacramento Republic 4-0 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 30 Sep 2024

Sacramento Republic
4-0 HT 2-0
New Mexico United
📅30/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.9
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.68
Over 2.5
39%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.24
6+ Goals
8%
20.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 36% vs market 30.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-8.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.6pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sacramento Republic v New Mexico United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +23%
1.52/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.42
+3% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 75%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
17.8 Crosses 12.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9

Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
3W-1D-2L
AWAY New Mexico United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.14 xG 1.22
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
280 Passes 360
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.09.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-1 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
22.10.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-0 HT 1-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
21.09.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
23.07.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-0 HT 1-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
23.10.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
04.08.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-2 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP

Sacramento Republic 4-0 New Mexico United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
4-0
AWAY New Mexico United
3.75 xG 0.63
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
284 Passes 410
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
34 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic swept aside New Mexico United 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 30%) promised a tight game; Sacramento Republic found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 44% of the ball to New Mexico United's 56%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 3.75 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sacramento Republic and 1.17 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?

Sacramento Republic 4-0 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 40%, draw 29%, New Mexico United 30%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
30 Sep 2024
01:00 Oakland Roots vs FC Tulsa Analysis →