Deportivo Pasto 3-1 Aguilas Doradas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 30 Oct 2024

📅30/10/2024 · 🕒02:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.52
Over 2.5
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.27
No
57%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
55%
-9.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+8.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.7pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Aguilas Doradas EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
1.16/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.05
-5% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
361 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 77%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
21.6 Crosses 12.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Aguilas Doradas
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 1.00
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
204 Passes 350
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
07.04.2024 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
01.10.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 3-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
11.06.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 3-0 HT 0-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
28.05.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
22.04.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-0 HT 0-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
27.11.2022 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 3-4 HT 2-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pasto
3-1
AWAY Aguilas Doradas
1.47 xG 1.55
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 5
264 Passes 181
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
12 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Aguilas Doradas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Pasto beat Aguilas Doradas 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Deportivo Pasto as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Pasto had 56% of the ball to Aguilas Doradas's 44%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.47 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Pasto had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 1.00 for Aguilas Doradas.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Aguilas Doradas?

Deportivo Pasto 3-1 Aguilas Doradas in the Colombia - Primera on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Aguilas Doradas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Pasto win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 46%, draw 28%, Aguilas Doradas 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Pasto) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Pasto) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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