Almeria 2-1 Granada — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.5
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 30% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.75
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.2
X/1
22%
4.87
X/2
9%
9.15
X/X
9%
5.38
2/1
10%
27.5
2/2
11%
6.76
2/X
8%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-1.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.8pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Granada EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +13%
1.72/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.28
+18% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
317 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
18.1 Crosses 16.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Granada
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.33 xG 1.55
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
214 Passes 366
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.02.2024 Granada Granada 1-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
01.10.2023 Almeria Almeria 3-3 HT 3-0 Granada Granada İS1
29.07.2019 Granada Granada 1-0 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria HAZ
17.03.2019 Almeria Almeria 0-0 HT 0-0 Granada Granada İS2
27.10.2018 Granada Granada 1-0 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
13.05.2018 Almeria Almeria 2-0 HT 1-0 Granada Granada İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
2-1
AWAY Granada
1.97 xG 0.63
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
396 Passes 305
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Granada
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria squeezed past Granada 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Almeria as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Almeria had 56% of the ball to Granada's 44%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.97 to 0.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Almeria's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Granada led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Almeria and 1.00 for Granada.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Granada?

Almeria 2-1 Granada in the Spain - 2nd Division on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Granada?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Almeria 49%, draw 25%, Granada 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almeria) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Almeria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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