Erzgebirge Aue 2-5 Verl — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
27%
3.18
6+ Goals
10%
10.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.8
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
26.5
1/X
10%
12.95
X/1
12%
5.91
X/2
17%
5.56
X/X
13%
5.06
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
14%
3.49
2/X
6%
12.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
36%
-5.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+2.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.9pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Verl EU Bookmakers 42%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.31/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.75
-8% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -29%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
273 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
20.4 Crosses 18.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Verl
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.75
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.04.2024 Verl Verl 3-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
03.11.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-2 HT 0-0 Verl Verl AL3
15.04.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-3 HT 0-1 Verl Verl AL3
23.10.2022 Verl Verl 3-2 HT 2-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2-5
AWAY Verl
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 3
250 Passes 577
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Verl cruised past Erzgebirge Aue 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 2-4. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Verl as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 34% of the ball to Verl's 66%, shots finished 9-20.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Verl led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 2.75 for Verl.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl?

Erzgebirge Aue 2-5 Verl in the Germany - 3rd Division on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl?

Before kick-off our model rated an Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 31%, draw 29%, Verl 41%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Verl), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Verl) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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