Millonarios 2-1 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.5pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.0pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.6pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millonarios EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +16%
1.13/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.04
+16% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 77%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
16.4 Crosses 13.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millonarios
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.50 xG 1.09
49% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
292 Passes 298
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
10 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
25.07.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
12.02.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
07.12.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
24.11.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 0-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOLK
16.11.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
13.11.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millonarios
2-1
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.37 xG 1.03
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 2
274 Passes 281
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 9
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millonarios squeezed past Atletico Nacional 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Millonarios as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Millonarios had 50% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 50%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 0.37 to 1.03 — on chances, Atletico Nacional could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Millonarios and 0.83 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional?

Millonarios 2-1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millonarios win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Millonarios 41%, draw 29%, Atletico Nacional 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millonarios) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Millonarios) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOL More Colombia - Primera
30 Nov 2024
02:30 Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe Analysis →