Katowice 2-0 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.93
4-5 Goals
24%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.13
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.05
X/1
18%
4.27
X/2
6%
10.05
X/X
10%
5.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.25
2/2
13%
7.01
2/X
9%
14.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.25 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.1pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.0pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 24%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
0.87/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.93
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 79%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
16.0 Crosses 16.9
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
07.04.2024 Katowice Katowice 1-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL1
22.09.2023 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 5-1 HT 1-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
2-0
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.70 xG 1.27
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
288 Passes 312
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
39 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice beat Lechia Gdansk 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Katowice as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Katowice had 48% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 52%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.70 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Katowice and 2.50 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Lechia Gdansk?

Katowice 2-0 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Katowice win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Katowice 52%, draw 24%, Lechia Gdansk 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Katowice) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Katowice) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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