Akron 1-0 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.49
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.5
6+ Goals
12%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 27% vs market 23.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.09
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
12%
4.97
X/2
11%
6.64
X/X
14%
4.68
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
11%
4.65
2/X
5%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
43%
+1.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.8pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Akron EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
371 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
Crosses 18.7
Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Akron
0W-3D-2L
AWAY FK Orenburg
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.15 xG 1.06
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
294 Passes 292
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 0-1 Akron Akron RUS
27.11.2021 Akron Akron 0-3 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS1
21.08.2021 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Akron Akron RUS1
14.03.2021 Akron Akron 1-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS1
19.09.2020 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Akron Akron RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Akron
1-0
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.95 xG 0.82
45% Ball Possession 55%
19 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
292 Passes 379
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
38 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Akron vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Akron squeezed past FK Orenburg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Akron as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Akron had 45% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 55%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 1.95 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, FK Orenburg led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Akron and 1.40 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Akron vs FK Orenburg?

Akron 1-0 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Akron vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Akron win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Akron 45%, draw 27%, FK Orenburg 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Akron) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Akron) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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