Cerro Largo 2-1 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.12
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
23%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.51
Over 2.5
35%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
24%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
43%
+6.1pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.3pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-3.8pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.0pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.0pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -8%
1.46/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.52
+16% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
280 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Largo
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Progreso
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.06.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
17.10.2021 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
19.06.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
15.03.2021 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
12.09.2020 Progreso Progreso 1-2 HT 1-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
21.11.2019 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
POST-MATCH Cerro Largo vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Largo nicked a narrow win over Progreso 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cerro Largo as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Largo had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cerro Largo and 0.17 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Cerro Largo vs Progreso?

Cerro Largo 2-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro Largo win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Cerro Largo 49%, draw 28%, Progreso 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Largo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Largo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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