Verl 4-1 Osnabrück — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.09
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.15
Over 2.5
59%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.56
No
41%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
26%
2.99
6+ Goals
11%
9.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.04
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
16%
5.3
X/2
9%
6.81
X/X
9%
5.35
2/1
8%
23.55
2/2
12%
4.48
2/X
5%
13.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 10% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
44%
+3.4pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.3pp
31%
Away Win
31%
-0.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
43%
-2.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
57%
+2.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-0.8pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Verl EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.93/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.46
+19% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
313 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
14.8 Crosses 18.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Verl
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Osnabrück
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
318 Passes 259
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2025 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-3 HT 0-2 Verl Verl AL3
22.12.2024 Verl Verl 1-1 HT 1-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
08.05.2023 Verl Verl 0-1 HT 0-1 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
09.11.2022 Osnabrück Osnabrück 2-1 HT 0-1 Verl Verl AL3
11.04.2022 Osnabrück Osnabrück 3-2 HT 1-1 Verl Verl AL3
01.11.2021 Verl Verl 1-2 HT 0-2 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Verl
4-1
AWAY Osnabrück
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
594 Passes 261
88% Pass Accuracy 76%
10 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Verl vs Osnabrück
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Verl cruised past Osnabrück 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Verl as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Verl had 66% of the ball to Osnabrück's 34%, shots finished 14-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osnabrück led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Verl and 1.50 for Osnabrück.

What was the final score of Verl vs Osnabrück?

Verl 4-1 Osnabrück in the Germany - 3rd Division on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Verl vs Osnabrück?

Before kick-off our model rated a Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Verl 47%, draw 22%, Osnabrück 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Verl), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Verl) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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