Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Independiente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 31 Jan 2024

Velez Sarsfield
0-1 HT 0-1
Independiente
📅31/01/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Argentina - Premier League – 2024

Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
34%
2.83
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.36
Over 2.5
34%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.4
No
58%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
1.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
14%
7.39
6+ Goals
6%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
3.97
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
15.2
X/1
19%
4.86
X/2
12%
5.42
X/X
16%
3.18
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
14%
4.63
2/X
10%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.9pp
34%
Draw
32%
+2.2pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+0.7pp
66%
Under 2.5
70%
-4.4pp
34%
Over 2.5
30%
+4.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
38%
+4.4pp
58%
BTTS No
62%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Velez Sarsfield v Independiente — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
0.95/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.02
-1% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
293 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
18.5 Crosses 17.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.9

Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velez Sarsfield
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Independiente
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.88 xG 1.01
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
353 Passes 240
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
15 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.08.2023 Independiente Independiente 2-1 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
12.02.2023 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
16.09.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJK
28.08.2022 Independiente Independiente 1-1 HT 1-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
20.02.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
03.10.2021 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 3-3 HT 1-2 Independiente Independiente ARJ

Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Independiente — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velez Sarsfield
0-1
AWAY Independiente
0.92 xG 0.23
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 2
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
343 Passes 250
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
38 Box Touches 10
28 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente edged past Velez Sarsfield 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 34% / 32% — and on the day Independiente made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Velez Sarsfield had 56% of the ball to Independiente's 44%, shots finished 15-2, expected goals 0.92 to 0.23 — the balance of chances actually favoured Velez Sarsfield.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 1.33 for Independiente.

What was the final score of Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente?

Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Independiente in the Argentina - Premier League on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Sarsfield win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Velez Sarsfield 34%, draw 34%, Independiente 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/34/32) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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