Ascoli 2-1 Athletic Carpi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 31 Jan 2025

📅31/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.59
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
4.04
6+ Goals
11%
19.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 32% vs market 30.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-6.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+7.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.5pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ascoli EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Carpi EU Bookmakers 21%
-10% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.44/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/0.99
-9% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +35%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ascoli
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Athletic Carpi
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
19 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 5
26.09.2024 Athletic Carpi Athletic Carpi 2-2 HT 1-1 Ascoli Ascoli İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ascoli
2-1
AWAY Athletic Carpi
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ascoli vs Athletic Carpi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ascoli nicked a narrow win over Athletic Carpi 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ascoli as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ascoli had 45% of the ball to Athletic Carpi's 55%, shots finished 15-9.

What was the final score of Ascoli vs Athletic Carpi?

Ascoli 2-1 Athletic Carpi in the Italy - Serie C on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ascoli vs Athletic Carpi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ascoli win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Ascoli 49%, draw 25%, Athletic Carpi 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ascoli) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ascoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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